The more things change, the more they stay the same

Britain's big hopes

Britain’s big hopes

Every now and again you get a major tennis tournament that beats itself up so badly in the first week that you wonder just what it’s got left to give in the second week. Wimbledon 2013 falls firmly into this category. The women’s tournament lost two of its top triumvirate on Weird Wednesday, but alas there was only ever really one winner anyway. It is the men’s tournament that has it all to do to ensure we still have a spectacle in a few days’ time.

Not since the 2002 Australian Open (when none of the top 5 seeds and only five of the top 16 seeds reached the Last 16) has a men’s draw been decimated like this so early on. Back then it was unheralded 16th seed Thomas Johansson that eventually strode through the draw to claim the only Slam of his solid career. Will somebody as relatively unknown to casual tennis fans be victorious on Sunday at the All-England Club? Unlikely, bordering on impossible. What Wimbledon 2013 has to its advantage that week two of Australia 2002 didn’t possess is two stellar big-time hitters. The defeats of Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer were cataclysmic for tennis. There’s no denying that but it’s wrong to suggest either of them were completely unexpected, especially the defeat of the latter. Nadal’s record since his victory here in 2010 is one win and two defeats. That’s not a trophy record, it’s a match record. He put so much into retaining his Roland Garros crown that a let-down was almost inevitable. Federer’s quarter-finals record will stand forever but he was looking shakier and shakier in the early rounds over the last 18 months that eventually it had to come. That it would come in the grounds of his castle is upsetting but as previously stated, not entirely unexpected.

There may be some one-sided affairs to come this week, but what will salvage the latter stages will be a final for the ages. Andy Murray is in terrific form. He’s playing with confidence, assuredness but it is not straying into arrogance. He is mindful of each dangerous step across the SW19 minefield and is affording each opponent the respect that they deserve. Added to this, the support from his home crowd has never been as fervent as it is this year. He’s a champion in the making, the first British man to win Wimbledon in forever…..if it wasn’t for Novak Djokovic. The Serb made three unforced errors in his third round victory over the 28th seed Jeremy Chardy. That’s an insane statistic at any level, not least in the Last 32 of a major. I don’t care if Chardy wasn’t playing so well, all it does is reinforces my belief that what happened to Federer and Nadal out there last week has sharpened Murray and Djokovic up so much that their final showdown is bordering on certainty. There may well be some minor shocks along the way this week, but I’d stake all I own on those two bringing the curtain and the house down next Sunday afternoon. For what predictions are worth at the moment, their likely semi-final opponents for me would be Juan-Martin Del Potro for the Serb and huge-serving Jerzy Janowicz for the boy Murray. But stand by for another classic Wimbledon final, their third Grand Slam final in the last 12 months.

Favourites for the crown

Favourites for the crown


On the women’s side, Serena’s final is effectively on Magic Monday – the best day of Grand Slam tennis, in which all 16 men’s and women’s 4th round matches are played. The imperious American comes up against Sabine Lisicki, the girl who just can’t get enough of Wimbledon. A semi-finalist and quarter-finalist in the last two years, the German has already seen off two grand slam winners and the reigning Eastbourne champ in the first week. Her reward is a date with destiny. Topple Serena on Centre Court tomorrow and the path opens up to a maiden major. She poses the biggest threat to knocking Serena off her untouchable perch. The biggest problem for the Lisicki is Serena knows this. Williams will bring her A Game to Centre Court, knowing that Lisicki is the biggest obstacle to her lifting her sixth Wimbledon title. Expect Serena to come through in two tough sets. What the women’s tournament really needs is Laura Robson to win her fourth round tie with Kaia Kanepi. That would lead to a quarter-final match-up with Williams the following day, watched by a sure-to-be raucous crowd. Only that will save the women’s tournament from being a forgettable yawn from the second Monday onwards. The young Brit will need to minimise her mistakes against a good player in Kanepi but if she brings her best game, the fearless Brit will keep her nerve where Kanepi’s will fail. Serena will win her sixth crown; again I am certain of that. I have a sneaky suspicion she will face Marion Bartoli in the final, six years after the Frenchwoman was defeated in the final by Venus. Nobody is playing really good stuff in that bottom half, hence the reason I give the nod to the experience of Bartoli.
We may have dull days ahead this week, but after the seismic shocks of last week, I think there’ll be no surprise names on either trophy. Tomic, Stephens, Robson, Del Potro….prove me wrong if you can!

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